Kerala,(population density of 860/sq.km.) is one of the most progressive states of the country, with high per capita income(Rs.128347- higher than the national average of Rs.82269, high life expectancy (77 years) and high literacy rate(94%). It is a model state for human development index(0.79) , gender equity, sex ratio( 1084 females per 1000 males), and its development story is being emulated by many states of the country. The deluge of the state now may be converted into an opportunity and a new model of disaster recovery can be established. Gujarat long-term recovery programme was considered as one of the best models and was conferred with UN Sasakava Award and World Bank green award. After Gujarat 2001, there have been many new innovations across the globe that can also be stitched together for planning a long term recovery framework for the state of Kerala.
So the pertinent question is what is to be done now? Knowing the task in hand is much more appropriate. Recovery planning has to be done by going step by step in a time bound manner. And, for making a recovery plan we need to know the extent of damage first. Damage, loss assessment and setting priorities ( need) of recovery should be the top priority .On the basis of the loss assessment, the recovery plan needs to be developed soon. Build Back Better is the priority (and rational also) in the global recovery discourse. When any state/country is planning for recovery, first and foremost thing to be done is to have a state policy that not to rebuild the risk again. So every reconstruction has to have a disaster resilient feature ( as per the exposure of risks) . Disaster recovery has to be inclusive, resilient and better than before (say stronger). But at this stage, it is important to integrate humanitarian relief (essentials for survival-water, food, shelter, sanitation, hygiene, security etc.), intermediate restoration of basic services and then long term reconstruction and asset recovery.Still even after 15 days, 3.5 lacs of people are living in the relief camps. It is really noteworthy that Hon’ble Chief Minister of Kerala in his interview to Economic Times has emphasized and given assurance that the entire recovery exercise is going to be the model disaster recovery programme of the country.
The World Bank report, “unbreakable” has argued while unfolding Building Back Better as about long-term recovery- inclusive, faster and stronger. Many countries (149) have been analyzed here and if they implement this concept it would reduce global well being losses by 31.2 percent from US $ 555 billion to US $382 billion .The reconstruction is an opportunity to upgrade their destroyed assets with more resilient and modern features addressing current and future needs with higher productivity.
It is going to be a huge disaster recovery program (12 out of 14 districts are affected with flood) if we go by the initial assessment or guesstimate of loss of Rs. 20000 corers approx ( reported in media many times). The process for undertaking relief, immediate recovery and long term recovery is important to keep in mind. Govt of Kerala should immediately set up an agency, may be under SDMA of which CM is the Chairman, which can implement and monitor the multi sectoral recovery program well. Institutional arrangements have to be done which would completely focus on the recovery process. Senior officers could be deployed for the execution of the projects to the dedicated body (PMU- Project Management Unit) for disaster recovery. An exercise of the post disaster damage, loss and need assessment, may be with the support of national Institutes, international, bilateral or multilateral agencies, be carried out and be finished so that state will have a clear road ahead plan of action. Each sector by the time would submit its recovery plan to the main body, which would further plan for its execution. Govt would make arrangements for its funding and set up priorities accordingly.
In India, disaster recovery have been funded by the states government’s own budget, central govt support, cess, new tax, loan from multi lateral organizations- World Bank, ADB and some other grant in aid given by bi-lateral support, international and national NGOs, civil society groups, private sector etc. Some financial tools could be used as Tax benefits, prolonged EMI on the loans, cheap money policy , Insurance , Insurance pooling amongst the state/countries.
Currently, in Kerala the local market is lull, shops are closed, for small business groups require to spend Rs. 10-20 lacs on average for restoring their shops and to roll down the business. The procurements for meeting the demand of affected people who are in relief camps are largely happening outside the state and hence local market is not picking up. Small scale industries, handicraft and tourism have to be revived as quickly as possible.
This is time or opportunity to introduce some of the new products and making investment in disaster management planning. Dam and reservoir management, setting up of early warning system, flood risk modeling, setting up of State Disaster Response Force, capacity building of their officials on disaster risk reduction, improvement in construction technology of housing and infrastructure(especially for Alappy and other low line areas) , creation of all weather infrastructure , strong warning dissemination equipments, strong emergency response system with community and fisherman focus should be taken as priority for risk reduction . We may have to make ex-ante investment as part of the recovery plan mandatorily as non negotiable items. The Gadgil committee and Kasturirangan committee reports should be made handy to everyone to usher the state into a new era of development.
Short –term impact of Disaster of 2018 might be gradually getting reduced but long term impact is rising everyday due to indirect losses (revenue loss) . God forbid, the danger of getting struck again is not over yet. Climate change has made it more uncertain and impending disaster maybe of high intensity. Strong disaster response system, development of flood inundation, cyclone and other risk modeling of the state are required so that it can be predicted with much confidence about the areas likely to be affected and the population impacted.
(Writer Dr. Santosh Kumar is Professor & Head, Governance and Inclusive DRR Division, National Institute of Disaster Management, Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt of India. He can be reached at - profsantosh@gmail.com)