Post S-400 Deal, India and Russia Cautiously Await US Response
By Ashok Dixit
New Delhi, Oct 07, 2018: Another summit between India and Russia is over and the takeaways for both sides have predictably been significant, more so for New Delhi than Moscow.
Delegation-level talks held in New Delhi on Friday saw both sides inking eight significant agreements in several sectors, including railways, space and fertilisers, but the most anticipated one was Russia’s decision to supply five S-400 ‘Triumf’ long-range surface-to-air missiles to India at an estimated cost of USD 5.4 billion, which translated in Rupee terms amounts to a monumental Rs.40, 300 crores. India and Russia, however, failed to sign agreements for four 1135.6 Krivak Class frigates (USD 2 billion) and approximately 600,000 AK-103 Assault Rifles.
The S-400 Triumf air defence system can engage up to 36 targets at any given point of time and launch 72 missiles simultaneously. It has a proven record of neutralising air attacks, including by stealth aircraft. It has a target detection range of up to 600 kilometers and ballistic missile destruction range of between five to 60 kilometers. Apart from India, only two other countries are recipients of the S-400 defence missile shield- China inducted six of them in 2014 at a cost of USD three billion and Turkey will get the missile defence shield in 2019. Saudi Arabia and Qatar are currently negotiating for the missile, as per a media report.
The delivery of these missiles is expected to begin towards the end of 2020, with New Delhi agreeing to cough up 15 percent of the total amount as advance through the traditional rupee-rouble mechanism.
What the leaderships of both countries would now have to be wary or concerned about, is how far the United States in general, and its President Donald Trump in particular, would be willing to turn a blind eye and not apply sanctions on receiving countries under the “Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) law, that imposes penalties for defence purchases from three countries – Iran, Russia and North Korea.
The Indian Government’s view that the negotiations for the purchase of the S-400 missiles has been done in the national interest and much before CAATSA was given legal sanctity earlier this year, might not be entirely accepted by Washington as it anticipates the possibility of another ‘Cold War’ era similar to the one that prevailed in the 1950s and 1960s.
Will the United States accept New Delhi’s appeal for a sanctions waiver on grounds that most of its weaponry is primarily of Russian origin and of widespread use in the Indian armed forces is the big question? Immediate past developments tells us that Washington has not shied away from applying the sanctions through this sweeping legislation on others (Read China).
For the present, Washington has responded with studied caution, saying that for the time being, it will not indulge in a pre-judgment on whether the sanction is to be imposed on Moscow or not.
Several signals reportedly emerging from within the Trump Administration suggest that there could be a one-off sympathetic waiver in the offing, given that the United States continues to see India as an important ally and that it would be careful about understanding what the implications could be on bilateral ties long term if an exercise in punishment were to be indulged in.
Officially though, the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi has said, “Waivers of the CAATSA Section 231 will be considered on a transaction-by-transaction basis. We cannot prejudge any sanctions decision.”
It is Washington’s view that Moscow’s moves to offer arms and other assorted weaponry to other countries, including China and India, is questionable, and therefore, it feels that counters have to be put in place to economically cripple the Russian defence sector by arresting existing money flows.